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The question of projections may be one of the most challenging elements of a business or intellectual property appraisal. Most business appraisers will be placed in a position of assessing projections, including projections another appraiser provided. Join Michael Blake for an exploration of the quantitative and empirical methodologies for creating and/or validating projections. As a result of this class, you will gain exposure to potentially new tools to help make your projections more robust and to objectively assess projections others provided so that you can incorporate them into your analysis appropriately.
Program Agenda
When do we encounter projections?
What is the difference between “good” and “bad” projections? How do we define “reasonable”?
The current state of the art in developing and/or assessing projections.
Should appraisers prepare projections on behalf of a client?
Projections for companies with a track record.
Projections for startups and new intellectual properties.
Assessing projections and how to make adjustments for them.
Key questions to ask about projections.
Special cases: COVID-19 recovery, distress/turnaround scenarios.
Learning Objectives
Determine when it may or may not be appropriate to develop projections on behalf of your client;
Apply empirical/quantitative methods to develop projections for stable companies;
Apply empirical/quantitative methods to develop projections for startups and novel intellectual properties/inventions; and
Apply empirical/quantitative methods to test and/or critique projections that the appraiser must evaluate.
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