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Getting clients to provide probability estimates is a part of many valuation engagements, but is one of the least rigorous, and hardest to document and defend, estimates in a valuation. In this program, James Walling will help you to understand the hidden bias in most probability estimates and offer a practical method for getting your clients to get past these biases and provide better estimates. This process will also provide a basis for documenting the considerations that went into the estimate for report and audit review.
Program Agenda
Introduction
Current approach to probability estimates
Hidden bias that lead to errors in probability estimates
Probability encoding
Interview structure
Backcasting and Headlining
Verbal techniques
Visual techniques
Question & Answers
Learning Objectives
Understand the shortcomings of current practice in probability assessment
Recognize and deal with hidden bias in probability estimates
Apply a more organized approach to probability assessment
Understand how to provide their clients and reviewers with a better understanding of how probability estimates were developed and tested
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