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A loan guarantee is a derivative and should be valued accordingly. The mathematics used in valuing derivatives can be quite daunting. Unlike stock options where the range of possible stock prices at expiration are infinite, with loan guarantees we can choose to operate in a two state world where the underlying loan either defaults or it doesn’t. Therefore in these cases we can simplify the mathematics. Join Gary Schurman for a look at the mathematics of valuing derivatives and how these apply to valuing loan guarantees. With an emphasis on what the math is telling us rather than the mechanics, this event will be illuminating to anyone valuing loan guarantees or derivatives in general.
Program Agenda
Value a loan guarantee in a simple default or no-default world
Add a loss cap to the guarantee
Use a modified version of the Black Scholes model
Discuss when to accept and when to turn down an engagement
Look at a real life example of what not to do
Learning Objectives
Learn how derivatives are priced in a no-arbitrage world
Understand the difference between actual and risk-neutral probabilities
Understand the difference between continuous and discrete time
Learn how to use linear algebra to value a vanilla guarantee in a default or no-default world
Learn how to use a modified version of the Black-Scholes model to value a vanilla guarantee
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