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The world of valuation, investing and finance is divided into two camps. In one, you have the number crunchers, who believe that the only things that matter are the numbers and that imagination and creativity are dangerous distractions. In the other, you have the story tellers, who build on the stories they tell about companies and how these stories will bring untold wealth. Each side believes it has a monopoly on the truth and looks with contempt at the other. Join this session with Aswath Damodaran to learn why, in his view, both sides are right and both sides are wrong. Stories matter, but only if they are connected with numbers, and numbers are empty, unless they are connected with narratives. In this session, learn the process by which you build narratives, check them against reality, and convert them into valuations with real world examples to illustrate the process.
Program Agenda
The delusions of the number crunchers
The delusions of the story tellers
Bridging the gap
Building a valuation
From story to numbers: The steps
Step 1: Survey the landscape
Step 2: Create a narrative for the future
Step 3: Check the narrative against history, economic first principles & common sense
Step 4: Connect your narrative to key drivers of value
Step 5: Keep the feedback loop open
Learning Objectives
How to tell a business story
How to check whether a story is possible, plausible and probable
How to connect a story to valuation inputs and a valuation
How to reverse engineer a story from a discounted cash flow valuation
How to keep the feedback loop open for changes, additions and corrections to the story/valuation
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